The AKA Insights Department has been analyzing Broadway trends for years and the Tony Awards are no exception.
Here are some common trends among Tony-winning Musicals and Plays over the last 16 years (including this year’s winners):
Best Musical Trends
- 63% of the previous Best Musical winners were Comedies (only 6 musicals in the last 16 years were Dramas)
- 7 of the last 16 winners were based on a movie (3 of which were Oscar-winning movies)
- 10 of the last 16 Best Musical winners were not set in present day
- Only 1 musical in the last 16 years has won Best Musical without a previous production before Broadway (Book of Mormon)
Best Play Trends
- 63% of the previous Best Play winners opened in the Spring
- 13 of the last 16 winners were Dramas
- Only 2 plays adapted from a book have won the Tony for Best Play in the last 16 years
- 8 of the last 16 winners were plays previously produced in London
Based on a regression model predicting Tony-winning shows with 60-70% accuracy, Fun Home was the fourth largest surprise Tony winner for Best Musical. Other Best Musical surprises have been Titanic, In the Heights, Avenue Q, and The Lion King.
For Plays, the biggest Tony surprises have been Side Man, The Grapes of Wrath, and Art.