May is a difficult month, particularly for musicals in Year 2 or beyond, because those first three weeks of May leading up to Memorial Day Weekend is prime Tony season. New shows see strong sales during May, as locals try to see the next Tony-winner before June.
Below are the general takeaways from musicals over the past 10 years, and how they fared during May.
Average for all Musicals – down 13% from May Year 1 to May Year 2
Average excluding Tony Winners – down 21% from May Year 1 to May Year 2
Percentage of all musicals making it to Year 3 – 41% (10 out of 11 Tony winning musicals made it to May in Year 3; 8 out of 33 non-winners made it to May in Year 3).
Looking just at the 8 non-Tony winning musicals to make it to Year 3, it is a 50% split between shows that had a positive change from Year 1 to Year 2 and shows that had a negative change from Year 1 to Year 2, suggesting that this percentage change is not predictive of making to Year 3.
Only 3 of those 8 non-Tony winning musicals made it to Year 4. Of the three, two of them had positive changes from Year 1 to Year 2. The three musicals are Wicked, Rock of Ages, and Mary Poppins.
The chart above illustrates each of the musicals over the past 10 years, what percentage change they experienced from May in Year 1 and May in Year 2. If you click on the individual bubble, you can see what show it is, did they win a Tony, and if they made it to Year 3 or Year 4, Again, this does not include Memorial Day Week and we are only noting Best Musical winners (not best revival of a musical, as there was not as strong of a trend).