Black Friday: Is It A Signal for 2015 Holiday Shopping? Or is it just noise?

The media has tried to use Black Friday as a gauge for overall holiday shopping trends, but as the astute writers of Fivethirtyeight.com point out, Black Friday and Cyber Monday take time to measure properly, and are noisy events to use as indicators of larger trends.

Time Magazine has quoted several different sources, stating that Cyber Monday this year totaled $3 Billion, up 18% from last year, while Black Friday sales were down $1 Billion.

While the overall sentiment is most likely correct (lower in-store sales and higher online sales), be wary of the figures quoted. We won’t know real numbers until 2016 when the Commerce Department released the final holiday numbers.

Read the full article from Fivethirtyeight.com here.